The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes.
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible.
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book itself a black swan.
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The most prophetic voice of all. GQ
Praise for The Black Swan
A book] that altered modern thinking. The Times (London)
A masterpiece. Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail
Idiosyncratically brilliant. Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times
The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works. Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate
Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias and] narrative fallacy. The Wall Street Journal
Hugely enjoyable compelling . . . easy to dip into. Financial Times
Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition. The New York Times Book Review
From the Hardcover edition.
About the Author
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent nearly two decades as a businessman and quantitative trader before becoming a full-time philosophical essayist and academic researcher in 2006. Although he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flaneur meditating in cafes, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University s Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is decision making under opacity that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don t understand. Taleb s books have been published in thirty-three languages. From the Hardcover edition."
“The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate
“Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times
“A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail
“Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times